Hi,

In case you were wondering what the locals might be thinking, I
wanted to put down a few thoughts for new Hall C staff and Qweak young
people living in town who don't have to worry about storm surge and
waves.

On the very coarse scale of the weather maps, it looks like a category
2 could pass by 60-100 miles east of us. The closer to the eye wall,
the stronger the winds, so minor changes in the hurricane's path will
make a big difference to our comfort and saf ety.  A category 2 could
be very serious business if the eye passed close by, and of course it
could be borderline 3. But I would probably stay here with my family
even if the eye were coming close by. There are real hazards to
evacuation inland like traffic, heavy rains, and even tornadoes. And
(for those of us that are homeowners) a minor broken window if
unattended could lead to serious property damage.

For category 3 and 4, my family and I would be headed for West
Virginia. Houses built to Virginia codes can't be relied upon to stay
intact at those wind speeds, especially when gusts are considered. But
again the prediction is for a category 2.

Here are some examples of previous hurricanes we encountered on the
Peninsula:

Floyd (1999) - A "miss" like Hurricane Floyd seems to be a
statistically more common event. It just means rain, wind, and did I
mention rain? These storms are a good way to recharge water tables and
reservoirs at a time of the year when we may need it. When it's
raining several inches per hour for 12 hours straight, flooding can
occur almost anywhere, so think about where you park your car, and
whether water could damage stuff stored on the first floor. The ground
will be completely saturated with water after the hurricane
passes. Then if another heavy storm happens along a few days later,
don\u2019t let your guard down because even moderate winds will
probably topple some trees.

Isabel (2003): A "minor hit" like Hurricane Isabel (which was only
category 1 at most by the time it got to us) was devastating to
coastal areas and even pretty harsh for those living in town. See
above regarding the rain. The additional issue will be winds. The most
damaging winds only last a few nail-biting hours, and come in
freight-train like waves every minute or two. Every weak branch, every
tree with a weak root system, and half the leaves in Tidewater will be
on the ground afterward. Humans can\u2019t quite fly in category 1
winds, but things left lying in your yard or porch will try. In the
aftermath, we might be warned to boil tap water for a few days (since
flooding may have contaminated it), and there may be no electricity in
outlying neighborhoods for a week.

Continuing with the Isabel-like scenario (real examples from previous
area storms):

The major direct storm dangers I can think of are tree falls, drowning
in your car after driving into a road washout or ditch, and coming
into contact with downed power lines.

Some major indirect storm dangers are falling off a ladder trying to
clean your gutters out and trim trees before the hurricane arrives, or
losing body parts due to chain saw mishaps during the cleanup after
the storm.

A neighborhood with no trees is pretty safe. "Nice" neighborhoods tend
to be full of dangerous trees. When a 100' pine tree falls, it doesn't
stop when it hits the roof of the building. On about 7 occasions, I've
seen pine trees that sliced thru the attic and stopped on the floor of
a 2nd story bedroom. So:

1. Choose which inner room you will retreat to during peak winds.

2. Think about which room you want to sleep in when it's too dark to
see if any trees are leaning dangerously toward your home.

3. Think about where to park your car.

Filling the gas tank of your car now will give you more freedom
later. Gas stations without electricity cannot pump gas. Gas stations
with electricity cannot pump gas they don't have due to disruptions in
deliveries.

Maybe getting some cash is a good idea too. After Isabel, K-mart
brought in generators to run the lights and registers but I doubt
their credit card machines were working.  Among the chaos and stress,
camaraderie can flourish:

Even if you lose electricity, your gas hot water heater will probably
still work. Your friends with electric water heaters will quickly tire
of cold showers. Offer them the chance to come over for a hot shower.

Without electricity, food in the fridge/freezer will quickly
spoil. Before it does, throw a neighborhood pot-luck at the house of a
neighbor with a gas grill or stove.

If you have electricity, great! Offer your Jewish friends the chance
to store their expensive kosher meats in your freezer (for example).

After Isabel passed, one couldn't drive one block due to downed
trees. Within 12 hours, trees had been cleared from local streets by
neighbors with chain saws, but the major roads were still
blocked. After a day or so, the major roads were unblocked, but downed
wires remained. It felt almost apocalyptic to be driving thru
intersection after intersection with no working signals.

In 2003, cell phone towers had battery backups that lasted only a few
hours. I have no idea what to expect in 2011.

Dave Mack